The Free Agent Starting Pitchers Market: A Deep Dive into the Struggling Middle Tier
The upcoming free agent class is a fascinating yet underwhelming affair, with a particular focus on the struggling middle tier of starting pitchers. While the hitting group has been under scrutiny, it's the starting pitchers who are failing to make a significant impact on the market.
The Weakest Class in Recent Memory
The free agent class, aside from the promising Tarik Skubal, lacks the usual impact talent. This is a stark contrast to previous years, where the market was brimming with potential. The absence of a clear standout pitcher has led to a somewhat stagnant market, with no clear front-runner for the top contract.
Freddy Peralta: The Clear #2 Arm
Freddy Peralta, the Mets' #2 arm, is having a solid but not exceptional first year. He's struggling to complete six innings and has a career-low 24% strikeout rate. Despite this, Peralta is still on track for the second-largest contract, largely because no other prime-aged pitchers have stepped up to challenge him.
Older Pitchers Dominating the Early Season
The top performers through the season's first two months are all on the older side. Kevin Gausman, Michael King, and Nick Martinez, all aged 32 or older, have been the top performers. Clay Holmes, aged 34, was also among this group until his injury. These pitchers are trending towards significant annual salaries, but only King has a strong chance of topping three years.
The Market's Cutoff for Long-Term Deals
There has been a clear cutoff for the market's willingness to go long term on pitchers. In the past decade, only four free agent starters aged 32 or older have commanded four or more years: Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Nick Pivetta. This cutoff has essentially been reserved for aces, with teams treating it as a meaningful threshold.
The 31-Year-Old Threshold
By contrast, there have been 10 free agent contracts of at least four years for 31-year-old starters in the same period. This threshold has been a significant marker for teams, leaving the door open for a pitcher in this age range to emerge as the second- or third-best arm in the class.
The Early Season Performance of Young Pitchers
MLBTR's early April free agent power rankings offer a snapshot of the players thought to have the best chance to challenge Peralta. However, the first two months of the season have been bleak for most of these young pitchers, with only one making a strong push.
Conclusion: The Future of Free Agent Starting Pitchers
The free agent starting pitcher market is a complex and ever-changing landscape. While the current class may be struggling, it's important to remember that the market is dynamic and can shift rapidly. The future of free agent starting pitchers remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the market is demanding a new breed of talent.
